[Opinion Brief] Comments on the report of Japan's national greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (NDC)　(December 3, 2024)

Comments on the report of Japan's national greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (NDC)　
Japan’s 2035 target must reduce emissions by 80% compared to FY2013 levels

December 3, 2024
Kiko Network
Mie Asaoka, President

Discussions on NDC and draft proposal of “60% reduction from FY2013 levels”

Under the Paris Agreement adopted at the 21st Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21), countries are required to submit their next national reduction targets (Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDC) by February 2025. The importance of the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5°C was emphasized at COP28, as was the rapid decline of the remaining carbon budget to realize this goal. Countries also reconfirmed the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets indicated by the most recent Synthesis Report for the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which requests cutting 43% of emissions globally by 2030, 60% by 2035, and 69% by 2040 compared to 2019 levels. The reduction targets requested by the IPCC are for the entire world, with developed countries such as Japan expected to make even greater reductions in order for the world to achieve the Paris goal. 　

However, the draft of “Japan’s basic approach and direction toward Net Zero 2050,” presented on November 25 at Japan’s 6th meeting of the joint council of the Ministry of the Environment (MOE) and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) to prepare the next NDC, was far from the level expected by the international community.

The presented proposal shows no intention of raising the 2030 target of a 46% reduction from 2013 levels, and indicates three pathways toward Net Zero 2050: 1) convex upward pathway, 2) linear pathway, and 3) convex downward pathway. The committee suggested Japan considers proceeding with the linear pathway from the viewpoint of “enhancing predictability toward the simultaneous achievement of emission reductions and economic growth”. This would mean setting targets to reduce emissions by 60% in 2035 and 73% in 2040 compared to FY2013 levels. These reductions compared to 2019 levels are only 52% and 67%, respectively. Furthermore, the amount absorbed is accounted for only in the target year, not the base year, which means that the actual reduction for each year will be even lower than stated.

After presenting three proposals with confusingly different reduction targets and using a different base year from the IPCC, the government is trying to present the median value as a compromise, but these targets are extremely weak as a climate change measure. It also lacks persuasiveness in terms of achieving economic growth, as it has no basis in fact.

Table : GHG reduction level: Comparison between the global percentages indicated by IPCC to achieve 1.5 °C target and draft made by the Ministry of the Environmental and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI).

1.5°C Goal and Carbon Budget

Japan has agreed to the Glasgow Climate Pact, which confirmed that countries would pursue efforts to limit the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C. According to IPCC and other climate scientists, limiting glibal warming below 1.5℃ is necessary to avoid immense impacts from climate change on the environment, economy, and society. It is essential that efforts to limit the global temperature rise is reflected in domestic policies.

The remaining carbon budget for the entire world in 2019 to achieve the 1.5°C target is estimated to be about 500 billion tons, even at a 50% probability. Of this amount, the budget allocated to Japan is 6.6 billion tons according to a population-based standard, or 14 billion tons according to the current emission levels that favors to the developed countries (from calculations by researcher Dr. Toshihiko Masui). If Japan pursues a linear pathway to Net Zero 2050 as proposed by METI and MOE, the cumulative emissions will be about 17 billion tons (14 billion tons of CO2). This exceeds both calculations and is not consistent with the 1.5°C target. Moreover, large amounts of emissions have continued after 2019, and if emissions through 2024 are taken into account, they will far exceed the range consistent with the 1.5°C target.

[1] Opinion against the positioning of coal-fired power plants for a decarbonized society.

Comparison of emission reduction targets by organizations and Climate Action Tracker (CAT)

It is essential that the 2035 reduction target that Japan will submit to the United Nations in its NDC next February should be set at a level consistent with the 1.5°C target and at a level expected within the international community. Several organizations, including NGOs, have proposed reduction targets that Japan should aim for, compared in the table below.
Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a consortium of international research institutes, has proposed a reduction rate for Japan that is consistent with the 1.5°C target. This requires a 78% reduction, excluding land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). Including LULUCF, it calls for an 81% reduction of total emissions from 2013 levels by 2035.

Organization name	2035 target (compared to 2013 levels)	2035年目標 （2019年比）	2035年目標の排出量（百万トン）
METI and MOE secretariat	60％	51.7％	563
Japan Federation of Economic Organizations	60％	51.7％	563
JCI	Over 66％	58.9％	479
JCLP	Over 75％	69.8％	352
Kiko Network	75～80％	69.8～75.9%	282～352
Watashi no Mirai (group of civil society organizations)	81%	77%	268
Climate Action Tracker	78％ (excluding LULUCF) 81％ (including LULUCF)	73.4％	310

Toward achieving 80% GHG emissions reduction by 2030

With Japan's current climate and energy policies, even the 2030 target is in jeopardy, and the country will fall far short of the 80% reduction by 2035. This is especially true in the power sector, which accounts for 30-40% of Japan's greenhouse gas emissions, where no significant reductions have been achieved, and the country has continued to maintain thermal and nuclear power generation under the guise of “zero emission thermal power” and made little progress in expanding renewable energy.

It is crucial that Japan reflects in its policy what it has agreed to at the COP conferences and G7 summits, including commitments to “triple global renewable capacity and double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030” (compared to 2019), “phase out existing unabated coal power generation in our energy systems during the first half of 2030s” and “achieve a fully or predominantly decarbonized power sector by 2035” and significantly revise current policies accordingly.
In addition, Japan should aim to achieve 80% GHG emission reductions in 2035 through transitioning away from fossil fuels, expanding renewables, and promoting electrification in other industrial sectors and automobiles.

Reference (all of documents written in Japanese)

• 中央環境審議会地球環境部会2050年ネットゼロ実現に向けた気候変動対策検討小委員会・産業構造審議会イノベーション・環境分科会地球環境小委員会中長期地球温暖化対策検討ＷＧ　合同会合（第６回）2050年ネットゼロに向けた 我が国の基本的な考え方・方向性（環境省・経済産業省）
• 日本経済団体連合会「エネルギー基本計画の見直しに向けた提言－国民生活・経済成長を支えるエネルギー政策の確立を求める－」
• 気候ネットワーク連続ウェビナー第３回　増井利彦 氏資料「日本のカーボンバジェットについて どう考えるか」
• 脱炭素社会に向けた石炭火力発電所の位置づけに関する意見2024年10月9日再提出　国立環境研究所　増井利彦ほか

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