September 2, 2026
Kiko Network
Mie Asaoka, President
On August 26, 2026, the government announced the Policy Package for Wide Energy and Resources Resilience through GX (POWERR GX) at the 17th meeting of the GX (Green Transformation) Implementation Council. The government aims to fundamentally improve the stability of fossil fuel procurement, accelerate and strengthen GX, and improve resilience in global energy supply and demand structures, particularly in Asia.
However, the direction of the latest “POWERR GX” policy does not aim to fundamentally reduce dependence on fossil fuels, but instead strongly emphasizes maintaining and strengthening the procurement and use of fossil fuels over the long term. This contradicts the goals to make the energy supply and demand structure truly resilient, and risks entrenching new vulnerabilities. Kiko Network is deeply concerned about the return to fossil fuels being promoted in the name of GX.
Locking in thermal power generation under the name of “GX”
The government has previously explained GX as a shift from an economic, social, and industrial structure centered on fossil fuels to one centered on clean energy.
However, in the latest POWERR GX initiative, the policy roadmap (GX Sector-Specific Investment Strategy) has been revised, and the following measures that will lead to the lock-in and the extension of the lifespan of thermal power generation are included as policies to be accelerated and strengthened.
- Establishing hydrogen and ammonia supply chains
- Improving and maximizing the supply capacity of natural gas-fired power, etc.
- Improving the business environment for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
- Doubling the supply capacity of power generation turbines
The establishment of hydrogen and ammonia supply chains, securing the supply capacity of natural gas-fired power plants and other sources, and improving the CCS business environment have been promoted as “necessary in the transition period to decarbonization.” Now, prompted by the deteriorating situation in the Middle East, the Japanese government is seeking to further strengthen these efforts.
However, if these measures are implemented, there is a risk that the construction of new natural gas-fired power plants will increase, and that even the lifespan of coal-fired power plants will be extended based on the use of ammonia co-firing and CCS.
Even if investment in current thermal power generation facilities is justified by assuming that decarbonization will be achieved in the future through hydrogen, ammonia, or CCS, there is no guarantee that they will be put to practical use at the necessary scale and cost, or with the required emission reduction effects. Meanwhile, thermal power plants constructed now will operate for several decades starting in the 2030s, posing the risk of locking in fossil fuel use beyond 2050.
The current energy crisis has once again highlighted the vulnerability of Japan’s energy structure, which relies heavily on imported fossil fuels. Further entrenching dependence on fossil fuels cannot be labeled “green transformation” in the true sense of the term.
Alignment with the 2035 and 2040 emissions reduction targets must be demonstrated
The Japanese government has submitted to the international community the targets of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 60% in FY2035 and 73% in FY2040, compared to FY2013 levels. However, the latest POWERR GX does not provide a quantitative evaluation of how greenhouse gas emissions will change from the 2030s through the 2040s as a result of efforts to improve and maximize the supply capacity of natural gas-fired power plants, and expand the supply capacity of power generation turbines.
If the government is to expand investment in new natural gas-fired power plants and fossil fuel-related infrastructure, it must clarify how this aligns with the targets of a 60% reduction by FY2035, a 73% reduction by FY2040, and net-zero by 2050, including additional emissions.
The expectation that “decarbonization will be achieved in the future with hydrogen, ammonia, and CCS” alone does not explain how current fossil fuel investments are aligned with the 1.5℃ target.
Rather than “diversifying procurement sources,” we must reduce fossil fuel demand itself
POWERR GX includes transportation cost subsidies to diversify the procurement of crude oil and other fuels, and support for the construction of alternative pipelines.
Due to the situation in the Middle East, there are times when it is necessary to prepare for short-term supply disruptions or diversify procurement sources. However, the most important aspect of medium- to long-term energy security policy is not to change “where fossil fuels are imported from,” but rather “how much we can transform our society to one that does not require fossil fuels.”
Even if we change our procurement sources, we cannot eliminate the risks inherent in importing fossil fuels, such as soaring international prices, disruptions to transportation routes, conflicts, and exchange rate fluctuations. Furthermore, investments in new pipelines and transportation and receiving facilities are based on the assumption that the equipment will be used for a long period of time, which could lead to a long-term lock-in of fossil fuel imports. If we are truly to strengthen our energy security, we must prioritize reducing energy demand through energy conservation, maximizing the introduction of domestically produced renewable energy, and reducing fossil fuel imports through electrification, storage batteries and demand response.
Increased demand due to AI and data centers should not be taken as a given
The government also cited the need to address future increases in electricity demand driven by AI and data centers as a reason to improve the supply capacity of natural gas-fired power plants and expand turbine supply capacity. However, clinging to the mindset of “building more power plants because electricity demand is rising” runs counter to climate change mitigation efforts.
For data centers and other similar facilities, improving energy efficiency and simultaneously introducing renewable energy is essential. If new thermal power plants are built based on the assumption of high electricity demand forecasts, it will create a self-perpetuating “fossil fuel lock-in” in which thermal power plants are constructed in anticipation of rising demand and then operated for extended periods to recover the massive investment.
Reliance on nuclear power also creates new vulnerabilities in energy security
POWERR GX outlines a strategy to maximize the use of nuclear power, based on projections of replacing 2 to 5 nuclear reactors in the 2040s and 11 to 14 in the 2050s. However, nuclear power plants pose a risk of extreme damage in the event of a serious accident, leading to long-term evacuations and environmental contamination. Recent international conflicts have seen nuclear power plants targeted by military attacks, highlighting their security and defense vulnerabilities. Increasing reliance on massive power plants means that outages would have a significant impact, which would necessitate the operation of thermal power plants as backups, undermining climate change mitigation efforts.
Public funds must not be used to solidify dependence on fossil fuels
Investing massive amounts of public funds in natural gas-fired power generation, hydrogen and ammonia co-firing, CCS, and new transportation and procurement infrastructure for fossil fuels is not only problematic from a climate change mitigation standpoint, but also maintains energy security risks and could increase the burden on citizens in the future.
Furthermore, if such policies are implemented overseas under the guise of “strengthening Asia’s energy supply and demand structure,” long-term investments in gas-fired power, hydrogen and ammonia co-firing, and CCS could be expanded to recipient countries, potentially hindering their transition to renewable energy.
What Japan should provide to Asian countries is not technology designed to prolong the use of fossil fuels, but rather support for technologies and systems that enable each country to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.
Consistency with the national climate change obligations outlined in the ICJ’s advisory opinion is also questioned
On May 20, 2026, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution welcoming the “Advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice on the obligations of States in respect of climate change.” The International Court of Justice (ICJ) indicated that a state may be in violation of its obligations under international law if it fails to take appropriate measures regarding the production or consumption of fossil fuels, or fossil fuel subsidies, resulting in significant damage to the climate system.
In this context, if the government promotes investment in new fossil fuels and related infrastructure through public funds, it will be required to provide a more rigorous explanation than ever before regarding how such policies align with Japan’s greenhouse gas reduction obligations and the 1.5℃ target.
Phasing out fossil fuels is the solution to both the climate crisis and the energy crisis
The damage caused by climate change is becoming increasingly severe around the world, threatening people’s lives and social infrastructure, as seen in the devastating floods in Nepal and Tibet on August 27, as well as the heatwaves and wildfires spreading across Europe. In Japan, following the heatwave in the areas affected by the Kumamoto earthquake, torrential rains have caused severe damage in Chiba, Ishikawa, and Fukui prefectures. The climate crisis itself is now a significant security risk to society and energy systems. There is a fundamental contradiction in positioning policies that increase and entrench greenhouse gas emissions as “energy resilience.”
Since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began, many countries have accelerated their efforts in renewable energy, energy conservation, and electrification, as documented by the International Energy Agency. Japan should also return to the basics of its decarbonization policy, maximize the adoption of renewable energy, and fundamentally improve the flexibility of the power system and promote energy efficiency.
What is needed now is not POWERR GX, which aims to secure and use fossil fuels for a long time. Breaking free from fossil fuels is the only path to truly strengthening Japan’s energy security.
References
- 17th meeting of the GX (Green Transformation) Implementation Council (in Japanese)
- Kiko Network Press Release on ICJ advisory opinion on “climate change action as a national obligation,” adopted by the UN General Assembly (May 28, 2026, in Japanese)
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