＜From “Kiko Network News” Vol.36, May 2004＞
How is it going with the current national policy based on "Guideline of Measures to Prevent Global Warming" !?
Ministry of the Environment(MOE) revealed outlook for greenhouse gas(GHG) emission in 2010 ( 16th April, 2004, the Central Environment Council) and it became clear that, by 2010, emission could increase by 4.1% above base year under policies and measures currently outlined, which is about 10% higher than the targeted emissions of the Kyoto Protocol (6% reduction). The gap was significantly high-lightened at energy related CO2 emissions, showing increase of 28.3% for a commercial sector and 21.2% for a residential sector while each reduction targets are 6% and 11%.
Although the whole picture have not been revealed completely enough to regard the outlook by MOE more than a rough figure, nevertheless this gap could not be simply filled by sink or Kyoto mechanisms and it is no doubt that more efforts to reduce emission, such as review of the target and major enhancement of measures, must be promoted.
For further considerations on these measures, we are bringing five points to be discussed.
Emission projection per sector*1 (based on the production prospect by Institute of Energy Economics, Japan)
| Base Year | 2001 | 2010 | Variable Ratio | Target-ed Goal *2 | Targeted Goal (Per Total Year) | Guide- line's Target | |
| Final Energy Consumption CO2 | 104,817 | 113,856 | 111,045 | 5.9% | 5% | -2.0% | |
| Industrial | 47,608 | 45,181 | 45,537 | -4.4% | -7% | ||
| Trans-portation | 21,705 | 26,656 | 25,870 | 19.2% | 16% | ||
| Commercial | 14,385 | 18,832 | 18,453 | 28.3% | -6% | ||
| Residential | 12,915 | 15,418 | 15,652 | 21.2% | -11% | ||
| Energy Conversion | 8,219 | 7,760 | 5,533 | -32.7% | |||
| Non-energy CO2 | 13,888 | 13,082 | 12,566 | -9.5% | -1.10% | -0.50% | |
| CFC's substitute, 3gas | 4,827 | 3,006 | 4,975 | 3.1% | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
| Total | 123,532 | 129,944 | 128,586 | 4.1% |
(10000ton-CO2)
*1…including only reduction by reliable measures.
*2…Allocated -2% of "Innovative Technical Developments and Further Activities by individuals in Each Sector" to energy related CO2
1.Fuel Conversion - from Coal to Natural Gas
Since 1990, coal fired power generation has considerably increased. As a base electricalsource following to nuclear power generation,its development and use have been promotedand the capacity factor has reached to 70% of the total.
Coal consumption at the electrical power suppliers including wholesale after 1990grew by 250% by 2002, which opposes the concept of climate change mitigation. Furthermore,proliferation plans of coal-fired power plants are still laid out for future.
To attain the target of the Kyoto Protocol,we must reduce coal fired power generation.By shifting electrical power generation from coal basis to natural gas basis, MOE anticipatesthat about 19.2Mt of CO2 can be effectively reduced, and they estimates further 138.4billionyen of environmental cost is necessary and assumes that social consensus on bearingthe additional cost is essential.
Shifting our energy resource to natural gas will have a dramatic effect on reducing CO2emission and be able to compensate for having been depending on unrealistic proliferationplans of nuclear power facilities. Additional measures like heavier taxation on coal forgenerate power or restriction on further constructions of coal fired power generationwill be required to trigger realization of the shift. In course, carbon tax to be hereinafterdescribed encourages the shifting.
2.System to Promote Industry's efforts
Steady promotion of reduction and subsequent further reduction by industries that create large quantities of emissions is of considerable significance for achievement of the target set under the Kyoto Protocol. However, at present, even the amount or source originals of GHG emissions are not well understood. In the next step of the climate policy, it would be a major premise to institutionalize calculation and publication of the amount of emissions by each company and facility. Based on that information, effective measures to promote reduction should be introduced. The Japan Federation of Economic Organizations sets the voluntary action plan, but it is not appropriate as practical countermeasures,for once emission-cut effort is left to the individual voluntary actions, complications such as further emission caused by production rise is inevitable. First of all, it is necessary to encourage incentive for price-rising by introducing carbon tax as well as work for a commitment for reduction target and introduction of a domestic "cap and trade" emissions trading system so that clear signal to be delivered to industries and suppliers.
3.Strengthen policies and measures on housings and buildings.
Housings and buildings will not be reconstructed within at least 30 years once they are builtup. Since those performances on energy conservation directly affect on energy consumption inuse of heating and cooling appliances, bad performance on insulation efficiency wouldcause emission increase in residential or commercial sectors. Therefore, attainmentof the highest performance level of energy conservation shall be naturally obliged uponconstructing new housings and buildings.In current situation, however, housings haveno obligation to meet the Energy-Efficiency Standards for the Next Generation set in1999, and with regard to business buildings larger than 2000m2, although report of energyconservation measures that are conducted are compulsory, there is no obligation toattain the efficiency standards. Stronger measures is needed that regulate buildersto force new housings and buildings indispensably to attain the energy-efficiency standards.Alleviation of the costs for attainment of the standards will be feasible supportedby subsidies or support systems.
4.Raising the target of renewables / Introduction of feed-in-tariff system
The Law Concerning the Use of New Energy by Electric Utilities was originally establishedto promote a spread of the use of renewable energy such as solar and wind power. However,because of an extremely low obligation rate of new energy put to electrical power suppliers(1.35% of electricity) and being forced competition with waste incineration, this method worksthe other way and becomes interference with encouragement of the spread of renewableenergy. It is a net loss for efforts against climate change to leave the paradox unsolved.In the next step of the Guideline, we need to face up to this question at least to raisea target level of renewable energy penetration and, consistent with that, revise the LawConcerning the Use of New Energy by Electric Utilities earlier. Since it has already beenproved that feed-in-tariff system, which fix price of renewables on electrical power,leads to widespread use of renewable energy more remarkably, introduction of feed-in-tariffis worth to be re-considered and prepared.
5.Introduction of carbon- tax as a cross-cutting measure
In the second step of the climate policy, while bringing measures effective for eachsector, it is inevitable to introduce a carbon tax that makes costs for fossil fuels usedin various scenes be relatively higher, and lead to fuel conversion, energy conservationinvestment and performance. Considering carbon tax of a basic policy against the preventionof the climate change and promoting the wider discussion toward introduction would require.Earlier introduction of a carbon tax leads to achievement of the target in the KyotoProtocol.
In August, the each ministry's assessment and basic idea for 2nd step will have beencompleted and a tentative report is being released. It's time for us to comment andsubmit proposals through public comments etc., to perform the needful political measureswithout fault.
Column 1
⇒⇒⇒ Details of Information Disclosure Request Regarding to the Climate Policy
Upon the assessment and review of the Guideline of Measures to Prevent Global Warming, thepolicies and measures must be publicly discussed with verification of the status. In fact,however, there are full of indistinctness, as no publication of the calculation basisat the establishment of the Guideline, and no idea how and why the Guideline was formulated.
Given the factor, Kiko Network made information disclosure request on the calculation basisto each government ministry and agency, but it took an awful lot of time as much as 3months before Ministry of the Economy, Trade and Industry disclosed the information. Thedisclosed information, with a few figures never given before, hardly includes whatwe need on the most of policies and measures.
The government's work for the assessment and review was carried out without adequateand essential open-disclosure of basic information, and we cannot help saying that they do notachieve their public accountability.
Column 2
⇒⇒⇒Measures against Climate Change -This and That-
◆Vanishing Solar heat Collectors: The penetration is too far to reach to "9 million solar heat collectors for residential use" with the tendency of removal rather than installation. Recently, a high-efficiency hot water system with a heat pump system, like an "Eco Cute", has become more popular than solar heat system which is more efficient at the bottom. Any back up by political measure or technical developments to solar heat power will be necessary.
◆Realizing Eco Labeling: Introduction of uniform eco-labels at stores, that has been established some practice in Tokyo and Kyoto at the local level, will enhance class curve and provide accurate information on energy-saving products.
◆Region-Led Transportation Demand Management (TDM): The current transportation policy is in consistent with city planning and road policy. Introduction of a comprehensive plan of transport and environment on municipality basis that includes region-led TDM will improve the transportation policy advantaging characteristics of region.
◆Voluntary Action by Public Facilities: Green procurement, renewable energy introduction,Installation of energy conservation facilities & infrastructures, mandatory setting of concrete emission reduction target, all of that will help giving a clear signal to society to improve leadership of the policies and measures in the market by the government, municipalities, public institutions and facilities.
◆Reform maintenances of existing housing and buildings: Promote energy conservation on reforms and operation & management for not only new housings and buildings but also those of existing.
